NOAA Scales mini
Space Weather Conditions
on NOAA Scales
24-Hour Observed Maximums
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no data
S
no data
G
no data
Latest Observed
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no data
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| R1-R2 | -- |
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| R3-R5 | -- |
| S1 or greater | -- |
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| R1-R2 | -- |
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| R3-R5 | -- |
| S1 or greater | -- |
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no data
| R1-R2 | -- |
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| R3-R5 | -- |
| S1 or greater | -- |
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no data
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Current Space Weather Conditions
on NOAA Scales
R1 (Minor) Radio Blackout Impacts
HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact.
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals.
More about the NOAA Space Weather Scales
- Usage
- Impacts
- Details
- History
- Data
The observed and predicted Solar Cycleis depicted inSunspot Numberin the top graph andF10.7cm Radio Fluxin the bottom graph.
In both plots, the black line represents the monthly averaged data and the purple line represents a 13-month weighted, smoothed version of the monthly averaged data. The slider bars below each plot provide the ability to display the sunspot data back to solar cycle 1 and F10.7 data back to 2004.
The mean forecast for the current solar cycle (Cycle 25) is given by the red line. This is based on an international panel that was convened in 2019 for this purpose. In February, 2023 the plot was modified to show the full range of the 2019 Panel prediction as the gray shaded region (similarly for the F10.7 cm plot). This takes into account expected uncertainties in the cycle start time and amplitude. Use the drop-down menu below each plot to display specific curves within this range.
These plots, like many on theSWPCwebsite, are interactive.
Mousing your cursor over the plots will display the data values applicable to the date the cursor is over.
Left clicking on the data and holding while you drag will define a zoom window.
Use the buttons above each plot to return to the default zoom showing the current cycle or to show the entire available data set.
There is also an option to toggle the solar cycle numbering on/off.
Beneath each main plot window, the entire time series is shown and you can click/hold on either side of the blue shaded region to expand or contract the zoom window or if you click/hold on the blue shaded region itself, you can slide it to anywhere in the time series.
A drop down menu above and to the right of each plot allows you toPRINT,or downloadPNG, PDF, orSVGformat images of the associated plot
Solar cycle predictions are used by various agencies and many industry groups. The solar cycle is important for determining the lifetime of satellites in low-Earth orbit, as the drag on the satellites correlates with the solar cycle, especially as represented by F10.7cm. A higher solar maximum decreases satellite life and a lower solar maximum extends satellite life. Also, the prediction gives a rough idea of the frequency of space weather storms of all types, from radio blackouts to geomagnetic storms to radiation storms, so is used by many industries to gauge the expected impact of space weather in the coming years.
Space Weather and GPS Systems
Electric Power Transmission
HF Radio Communications
Satellite Drag
The forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES) which was convened in 2019. This amounts to the official forecast for the solar cycle 25. After an open solicitation, the Panel received nearly 50 distinct forecasts for Solar Cycle 25 from the scientific community. Prediction methods include a variety of physical models, precursor methods, statistical inference, machine learning, and other techniques. The prediction released by the panel is a synthesis of these community contributions.
The Prediction Panel predictedCycle 25to reach amaximum of 115occurringin July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.
Observed Solar Cycle Indices: Recent Solar Indices of Observed Monthly Mean Values
- Observed Solar Cycle Indices Data (JSON)
Predicted Solar Cycle: Sunspot Number And Radio Flux Values with Expected Ranges
- Predicted Solar Cycle Data (JSON)
Sources
- SWPC Space Weather Operations (SWO), Daily Observations.
- S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number, Data Files.
- Penticton, B.C., Canada: 10.7cm radio flux values (sfu), Data Files.
Fields (JSON)
- time-tag: yyyy-mm
- ssn: mean monthly S.I.D.C. sunspot number
- smoothed_ssn: smoothed S.I.D.C. sunspot number
- observed_swpc_ssn: mean monthly SWPC/SWO sunspot number
- smoothed_swpc_ssn: smoothed SWPC/SWO sunspot number
- f10.7: mean monthly Penticton, B.C. 10.7cm radio flux values (sfu)
- smoothed_f10.7: smoothed 10.7cm radio flux values (sfu)
Values for the most recent 6 months are considered preliminary.
Sources
- S.I.D.C. Brussels International Sunspot Number,Data Files.
- Penticton, B.C., Canada: 10.7cm radio flux values (sfu),Data Files.
- Predicted values are based on the consensus of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel
Fields (JSON)
- time-tag: yyyy-mm
- predicted_ssn: predicted sunspot number
- high_ssn: predicted sunspot number high range
- low_ssn: predicted sunspot number low range
- predicted_f10.7: predicted f10.7cm value
- high_f10.7: predicted f10.7cm high range
- low_f10.7: predicted f10.7cm low range
Data not yet available or not calculable: -1.0
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
Please send comments and suggestions to swpc.webmaster@noaa.gov
